Current research and working papers

Boon, Curse, Fortune or Evil? The Political Consequences of Inward Foreign Direct Investment, with Boliang Zhu. Book manuscript under contract with Cambridge University Press. Download.

Promotion, Relegation and Competitive Balance: Evidence from Mexican Fútbol, Juan Pablo Micozzi, Joaquin Pinto, and Sebastian Saiegh. Hobby School of Public Affairs, Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series CPP-WP-2026-03.

Heterogeneous Districts, Interests, and Trade Policy, with Kishore Gawande, and Santiago M. Pinto. Download (Nov-2024 version).

An earlier version was published as Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, November 2023, Working Paper Series No. 23-12.

The original version of the paper titled “Voting, lobbying and trade policy. A structural estimation framework” was presented at the International Political Economy Society 2020 Conference.

Natural Disasters and Cooperation under Diversity: Evidence from Hurricane Harvey, with Pablo Balan and Agustin Vallejo. University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy & the State Working Paper No. 378 (2026).

Hobby School of Public Affairs, Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series CPP WP 2026-1.

District Heterogeneity, Legislative Bargaining, and Trade Policy, with Kishore Gawande, and Santiago M. Pinto. Download.

Artificial Intelligence and Decarbonization, with Buttorff, Gail and Soran Mohtadi. Prepared for presentation at the 2026 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, MA, September 3-6, 2026. Download.

An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 101st Annual Conference for the Western Economic Association International, Denver, June 29-July 3, 2026.

Inflation and Finance Minister Survival under Democracy and Dictatorship, with Agustin Vallejo, Sunny Wong, and Juan Manuel Abal Medina, under review. Download

Artificial Intelligence and Decarbonization, with Gail Buttorff, and Soran Mohtadi, presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, September 3-6, 2026. Download.

Bracing for the Storm: Ideal vs Actual Preparedness Strategies for Natural Disaster in Texas, with Gail Buttorff, Maria Paula Perez Arguelles, Agustin Vallejo, and M. C. Sunny Wong, Prepared for presentation at the 2006 Annual Meeting for the American Political Science Association, Boston, MA, September 36, 2026. Download.

How the IMF Influences Public Opinion towards Policy Reform: A Meta Analysis, with Stephanie Rickard, and James R. Vreeland, presented at the IMF Program Matters Seminar, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Washington, DC, May 5, 2026. Download.

Promotion, Relegation and Competitive Balance: Evidence from Mexican Fútbol, with Juan Pablo Micozzi, Joaquin Pinto, and Sebastian Saiegh. Hobby School of Public Affairs, Center for Public Policy, Working Paper Series CPP-WP-2026-03.

The Perils of Privilege: Manufacturing Wages, Educational Attainment, and the Populist Response to Industrial Decline, with William Roberts Clark and Keigo Tanabe. Download

ESG Stewardship, Gender, and the Energy Transition, with Buttorff, Gail, Soran Mohtadi, forthcoming in Ehsan Rasoulinezhad, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Yang Liu, editors, Just Energy Transition: Strategies for Inclusion and Sustainability, New York: Elsevier Science. Pre-print version.

Partisan Differences in Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Conjoint Experiment, with Gail Buttorff, Sameer Malik, Horacio Rueda, Agustin Vallejo, and Sunny Wong. Presented at the 2024 Latin America Political Methodology (LA PolMeth) Meeting, Montevideo, Uruguay November 22-23, 2024. Download.

Regulating Foreign Investment: A Study of the Properties of Bilateral Investment Regimes, with Santiago M. Pinto and Nicolas Stier-Moses. Download

Partisanship and the Allocation of Foreign Investment under Imperfect Capital Mobility, with Santiago M. Pinto. Download

Opportunistic policies under varying costs of redeployment: evidence from the auto industry, with Santiago M. Pinto. Download

Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad Times: Distributive motivations and pro-cyclical spending in Argentina, with Martin Ardanaz and Santiago M. Pinto. Download.

Love thy neighbor: Moral suasion and the formation of immigration policy preferences, with Leonardo Antenangeli and Jeff Church.

The Multidimensionality of Governance: Unpacking the effect of elections, rule of law and contract enforcement on investment risk, with Susan Achury and Rodrigo Nuñez-Donoso.

Industry segmentation and the market for protection: Evidence from oil, with Llewelyn Hughes. Download.

Democracy and Wellbeing: A difference-in-differences analysis of the consequences of regime transitions, with Robert Erikson and Kelly Rader.

The Individual Sources of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from Survey Data, with Carmen Le Foulon. WP No. 3 (December 2007), Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies (SIWPS) Working Papers Series.

The Politics of Investment: Partisan Governments, Wages and Employment, with Santiago M. Pinto. Download.

No Entiendo: The Effects of Bilingualism on Hispanic Earnings, with Jeronimo Cortina and Rodolfo de la Garza. Columbia University, Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy (ISERP) Working Paper Series No. 2007 | 03.

Does Partisanship Affect the Regulation of Foreign Investment? Download.

Tying Hands vs. Exchanging Hostages. Domestic Coalitions, Political Constraints and FDI. Download.